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OpCalcPosition Roadmap

Position Roadmap

You're in the trade. This shows where it can realistically go between now and expiry — the odds, the dates, and what waiting costs.

Enter what you hold and what you paid. Advanced adds what the option is worth today (blank uses the model's estimate), the dividend yield, and the price-path assumption.

How the roadmap works

Enter the position you hold — the legs, what you paid, and what it's worth now. The roadmap prices your position at a series of checkpoints between today and expiration, using the same Black-Scholes engine as every OpCalc calculator. The shaded cone shows where the stock is statistically likely to be at each checkpoint. The dashed line shows what your position is worth if the stock doesn't move at all — that's time decay, priced per day.

Two probabilities, two different questions

"Touches" is the chance the stock reaches your target price at some point before expiration. "Finishing" there — being at or beyond it at the close on expiry day — is a harder ask, and typically about half as likely. If you're deciding between holding to expiration and setting an exit order, the difference between these two numbers is the difference that matters.

What you paid vs. what it's worth

The roadmap shows targets measured from both baselines: recovering today's value and recovering your original cost. What you already paid doesn't change based on what you do next — the roadmap maps what can happen to what's left.